Super Tuesday Results Good for Immigration?
After Super Tuesday, the count of delegates places Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) far ahead of his Republican contenders. Sen.Hillary Clinton (D-NY) and Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) continue to battle for the nomination, but the contest has narrowed to just the two of them. All three favor some kind of legalization of unauthorized immigrants. This does not necessarily mean, however, that immigration reform will now move forward.
Congressional efforts towards legalization came to a halt in the face of adverse reaction to the Dream Act, the major legislative vehicle for reform. Instead, Congress--and, later, the presidential candidates--prioritized stricter enforcement of immigration laws and the building of a barrier at the border in order to control the flow of immigrants. That barrier is yet to be completed, and there is no definitive assessment of its effectiveness or lack of it. For that reason alone, reform will have to wait. But other factors come into play with the same result.
With action at the national level stymied, states and smaller jurisdictions began to pass their own restrictive regulations in response to concerns not just about illegal immigration but about immigrants in general. That movement grew as campaign rhetoric, especially on the Republican side, legitimized fears of reduced national and personal security, job loss, and cultural degradation. Unless they are challenged successfully in the courts, the new state and local regulations will be in effect prior to and after the presidential elections.
The genie of anti-immigrant reaction, having been pressed into service for the campaigns, will not easily go back into its bottle. As November draws closer, candidates for state and local office will have to take a stand on the issue, as will the presidential candidates themselves. And the safest course of conduct for them will be to stick to the current approach: control and enforcement first, reform later, if at all. The results of the primaries seem to indicate that the electorate in red as well as blue states is willing to accept a pro-reform presidential candidate as long as Congress takes no action to advance legalization, leaving the field to state and local jurisdictions.
After November 2008, we will have either a Democratic president with the support of a Democratic Congress, or a pro-reform Republican president with the support--on this issue--of a Democratic Congress. That's not much different from the current circumstances, under which reform has come to a halt. Legalization has long had the support of the White House; indeed, it has been a special project for President Bush during his two terms. As of the last Congressional elections, Democrats took control of both houses. Still, Congress was unable to muster the numbers to pass a reform law.
What conditions would favor a tilt towards a national policy of legalization for unauthorized immigrants? Here are some possibilities: a nation at peace, with a lessening of fear of the "foreigners," an expanding economy; a strong dollar; and a return to the traditional hegemony of the U.S. in Latin America. Those would add up to a sense of national self-assurance and a disposition to consider the issue realistically. None of those conditions are visible on the horizon.
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